The annual Sturgis motorcycle rally took place in Sturgis, South Dakota from Aug 7, 2020 – Aug 16, 2020 and drew in drew an estimated 460,000 people from around the country. A new study shows the event is responsible for 260,000 new cases of COVID-19 or, 19% of the total number of US cases during the month of August and $12 billion in new medical care.
The study states “the event was prolonged, included individuals packed closely together, involved a large out-of-town population, and had low compliance with recommended infection countermeasures such as the use of masks.”
Health economists Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Drew McNichols, and Joe Sabia produced the study which can be viewed here: http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf
"The results do not align with what we know for the impacts of the rally," South Dakota epidemiologist Josh Clayton said Tuesday. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem called the study "fiction" and said, "Under the guise of academic research, this report is nothing short of an attack on those who exercised their personal freedom to attend Sturgis.”
"We're never going to be able to contact trace every single person from Sturgis," Andrew Friedson (One of four authors of the study) said. "So if we want a good-faith estimate using, at the moment, the accepted statistical techniques ... this is the best number we're going to get in my opinion."
Three metrics were used in determining the number of new cases from the Sturgis rally.
“First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that (i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and (ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell. Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade. Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows.”
Full story:
https://www.foxnews.com/health/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-coronavirus-cases-south-dakota
Photo: Getty Images